Why bother campaigning? Campaign effectiveness in the 2009 European Parliament elections.

 with Matthew Wall and David Farrell, Electoral Studies, 32 (2013), pp. 768-778.


This paper explores the effectiveness of European Parliament candidates’ campaigns. We analyze the relationship between candidates’ spending and their likelihood of success, controlling for a range of relevant co-varying factors. We then investigate whether the effects of electoral spending are conditioned by two variables: ballot design and incumbency. We find that, ceteris paribus, spending was positively related to a candidate’s likelihood of electoral success in the 2009 campaign, though this effect is small in scale. We also reveal that the electorally positive effects of spending are observable across both ‘party-centered’ and ‘candidate-centered’ ballot structures, and that there is some evidence that incumbent spending is less effective than challenger spending. 

» http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.05.031